The local economy is booming, and nationally we are experiencing the second-longest bull market in history. That’s great news, but it can’t last forever. The economy runs in cycles and we’re long overdue for our overheated market to cool down a bit. According to a survey of top economists by Zillow, almost half of experts said they expect the next recession to begin some time in 2020.
Experts Say Recession Could Hit by Early 2020
A Recession Means a Slow-Down, Not a Crisis
A recession means the economy has slowed down. It does not mean we are experiencing another housing crisis. The housing crash of 2008 caused the last recession. However, that crash was primarily due to faulty lending practices that encouraged people to purchase homes they could not afford. Current lending practices make that unlikely to occur today.
Housing Won’t Be the Problem
According to economists, monetary and trade policy are the most likely triggers for the next recession, not housing.
“If a recession is to occur, it is unlikely to be caused by housing-related activity, and therefore the housing sector should be one of the leading sources to come out of the recession.” – Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American
The last recession that was caused by the housing crash was an anomaly. During the previous five recessions home values actually appreciated. If the US experiences a recession you can expect a slow-down of home price increases, not a housing crisis.