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Local Market Update – October 2022

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LOCAL MARKET UPDATE·3 min read Increasing listings inventory, lengthening time on market and a slowdown in home price increases across the Puget Sound region herald a return to normalcy and better opportunities for buyers. According to September data from the NWMLS, active listings nearly doubled from a year ago, with pending sales declining by about 31%. “The ‘Great Reversion’ continues, with the number of homes in the tri-county market of King, Pierce and Snohomish counties up 106% from a year ago,” says Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. “It’s worth noting that current inventory levels in King and Snohomish counties are still around 13% lower than they were in September 2019 prior to the pandemic-induced market shift.” While the recent sales data may be pointing to a market shift of a different sort, they may reflect some normal seasonal trends as well. October is typically an average selling month, with November typically performing about 76% as well as an average month, and December and January slowing even further as the holidays and end of year pull some buyers from their home searches. That being said, last month still saw year-over-year price increases in the Puget Sound’s busiest metros, despite some month-over-month price dips. King County single-family homes saw a price decrease from $899,999 in August to $875,000 last month. That’s still up from last September’s median price of $825,600, and condos also saw year-over-year price increases, from $466,501 last September to $483,000 this September. With about two months’ inventory for both housing types, King County buyers are better able to take their time and consider the details of their purchase. Seattle also saw a slight month-over month decrease in single-family home prices, from a median price of $927,000 in August to $900,000 last month. That’s still up six percent from $850,000 in September 2021. Conversely, year-over-year condo prices slumped a bit, falling to $499,000 last month from $505,000 in September 2021. Condo inventory has increased as well, with buyers benefitting from over two months’ supply. Sellers are encouraged to price wisely and accurately to beat the competition in these conditions. The Eastside was the only area to see prices stay the same month-over-month, with the median price for a single-family home remaining constant at $1,350,000. That’s an increase from the median price of $1,310,000 in 2021. Active inventory also increased, up to 1.9 months’ supply.  The last time the Eastside had […]

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Local Market Update – September 2022

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LOCAL MARKET UPDATE·2 min read After its breakneck pace over the last two years, it appears the housing market has finally reached a soft bottom to the price corrections that began in April of this year. Reports that we’re entering a bear market are generally exaggerated, however, as the market seems simply to be resetting to a more balanced state where buyers and sellers are at last on more equal footing. Perhaps as much as anything, the market’s performance in August reflects a typical pattern for a month that has traditionally been a slower time for housing sales. In King County last month, available inventory declined slightly to 1.5 months’ supply, with the median home price of $899,999 up slightly over July’s median of $890,000. That’s also an increase of 5.8% from $850,000 in August 2021. With 57% of homes selling in under two weeks and 22% selling over list price, many King County home buyers still have to move quickly and competitively, although with more leverage than they had earlier this year thanks to recent supply increases. The Eastside had slightly higher levels of housing inventory available, at about 1.6 months. The median sold price for single-family homes rose 4% year-over-year, to $1,350,000. The higher asking prices in this area mean fewer homes are selling over asking than in Seattle, with about one in four homes selling at or over list price. Condos remain a more affordable option in this highly desired area, with the median price for an Eastside condo sitting at $569,500 last month. Seattle has slightly less supply than King County as a whole, sitting around 1.4 months of inventory. The median sold price for single-family homes was up 6% year-over-year, at $927,000. About 65% of single-family homes in the city sold within two weeks, while 26% of homes sold above list price. With 2.4 months of inventory, condos may offer buyers an easier way to break into the market. The median sold price for condos last month was also a more affordable $520,000, though that’s still up 8.3% year-over-year. Increasing rents in the city and across the Puget Sound region are driving some buyers into the market, as homeownership is a hedge against inflation and rising rent costs. Even with that in mind, sellers still need to price accurately to avoid their homes sitting on the market for too long. Snohomish County had the lowest […]

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Q2 2022 Western Washington Real Estate Market Update

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Q2 2022 Western Washington Real Estate Market Update by Matthew Gardner The following analysis of select counties of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent. Regional Economic Overview The most recent employment data (from May) showed that all but 2,800 of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered. More than eight of the counties contained in this report show employment levels higher than they were before COVID-19 hit. The regional unemployment rate fell to 4.5% from 5.2% in March, with total unemployment back to pre-pandemic levels. For the time being, the local economy appears to be in pretty good shape. Though some are suggesting we are about to enter a recession, I am not seeing it in the numbers given rising employment and solid income growth. Western Washington Home Sales ❱ In the second quarter of 2022, 23,005 homes sold, representing a drop of 11% from the same period a year ago, but up by a significant 52% from the first quarter of this year. ❱ Sales rose in Grays Harbor County compared to a year ago but fell across the balance of the region. The spring market, however, was very robust, likely due to growing inventory levels and buyers trying to get ahead of rising mortgage rates. ❱ Second quarter growth in listing activity was palpable: 175% more homes were listed than during the first quarter and 61.98% more than a year ago. ❱ Pending sales outpaced listings by a factor of 3:1. This is down from the prior year but only because of the additional supply that came to market. Western Washington Home Prices ❱ Even in the face of rising mortgage rates, home prices continue to rise at a well-above-average pace, with average prices up 13.3% year over year to $830,941. ❱ I have been watching list prices as they are a leading indicator of the health of the housing market. Thus far, despite rising mortgage rates and inventory levels, sellers remain confident. This is reflected in rising median list prices in all but three counties compared to the previous quarter. They were lower in San Juan, Island, and Jefferson counties. ❱ Prices rose by double digits in all […]

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Local Market Update – August 2022

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LOCAL MARKET UPDATE·2 min read The summer continues to heat up, and patient buyers are being rewarded as market shifts create a new dynamic between buyers and sellers. After years of intense competition between buyers for the most desirable listings, increasing inventory and slower price appreciation across the region has caused a pivot, with sellers competing more strongly against each other than they have in previous years. While this may cause uncertainty in some sellers, the rise in active inventory is an indication that we are returning to a more balanced housing market as a whole. Sellers can still be very successful with their home sales, as long as they price their homes accurately and understand that they may not see the exorbitant offers that were typical a few months ago. This is a pragmatic approach, and we should see some relief in the “buyer gridlock” that had kept homeowners in place who wanted to sell and move, but simply had no place to go. Even with the increased inventory across the Puget Sound region, we may start 2023 with low supply, high demand, and multiple offer situations. Prices are coming down largely as a result of the previous rapid price appreciation and rising interest rates. However, the Puget Sound’s underlying lack of supply and huge demand has not changed, although rates have improved. Seattle’s median price for single-family homes rose 6.4% year-over-year, from $896,500 to $954,500. That’s down slightly from the million-dollar median the city hit in April, and should help create a more inviting market for prospective buyers. The median price for condos is currently a more affordable $537,000, with 2.5 months’ of inventory. King County as a whole is experiencing much the same phenomenon, with the median sale price for single-family homes decreasing from $938,225 in June to $890,000 last month. However, that’s still  up 2.1% from $871,000 in July 2021. Single-family homes on the Eastside currently have the most inventory of the tri-county area, with 2.5 month’s supply. The median price for single family homes has dropped to $1,420,000, down from $1,500,000 in June, but up 6.7% year-over-year. It’s important to note that this decrease in the median price is likely not due entirely to price depreciation, but from the fact that lower-priced homes made up a larger percentage of the overall sales in the area, thus lowering the median sold price. Real estate experts believe […]

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Local Market Update – July 2022

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LOCAL MARKET UPDATE·2 min read Cooler temperatures and a cooler regional real estate market have been this summer’s hallmark thus far. After months of blazing hot sales and a breakneck pace, buyers are finally seeing inventory levels accelerate and price gains slow. With inspection and financing contingencies once again becoming the norm, the region may at last be shifting toward a more balanced market. Area home prices were down across the board last month. The median sold price for King County single-family homes dropped to $938,225, slightly lower than May’s near million-dollar price ($998,888). Year-over-year, however, King County prices were still up by 9%, despite the higher 1.5 months of available inventory. Seattle mirrored the county’s trend, with the median price dropping from $1,025,500 in May to an even $1,000,000 in June. This price was still up 12% year-over-year, indicating continued demand for housing in the city. Real estate experts have pointed out that areas that saw the greatest appreciation earlier this year will likely see a more significant dip in prices as the market rebalances. The Eastside market bore out this theory in June as the median sold price for single-family homes was $1,500,000 — down almost $100k from May’s median price of $1,590,000. That said, last month’s Eastside median sold prices were still up over June 2021, increasing 10% year-over-year in the residential market and 12% in the condo market. And with two months’ supply of homes currently listed, Eastside buyers have significantly more options to choose from than they would have had earlier in the year. Snohomish County — long a refuge for buyers seeking more bang for their buck — followed a similar trend. The median sold price for single-family homes dropped to a more attainable $799,950, down from May but still up 11% year-over-year. Snohomish County condo prices dipped in June as well, with the median sold price of $500,000 down 9% from May and up a meager 1.6% from June of last year. While these recent price dips may cause concern for some sellers, local real estate experts reiterate that this is a necessary step toward a more balanced market. “The increase in listings has started to slow the rabid pace of price gains that we’ve experienced,” said Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s Chief Economist. “This is a good thing, not a cause for concern.” Other factors influencing the summer real estate market are higher mortgage […]

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Local Market Update – June 2022

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LOCAL MARKET UPDATE·3 min read The tides of our local real estate market may at last be shifting, as buyers find relief in increasing inventory and the frenetic pace of sales slows noticeably. At the end of May, inventory across the 26 counties served by the Northwest MLS had increased by 59%, with 8,798 active listings in the database, compared to 5,533 active listings just a year ago. While this shift may cause concern from some who anticipate a drop in the market due to rising mortgage rates, Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner had this to say: “What’s more likely to occur is that the additional supply will lead us toward a more balanced market, which after years of such lopsided conditions, is much needed.” While inventory has increased, the meteoric price hikes seen in this first part of 2022 is expected to slow dramatically in the next half of the year. Seattle saw a historic first in April, with the median sold price for a single-family home topping $1 million for the first time. May home sales continued that trend, with the median sold price inching up to $1,025,500, which is a 12% increase from $919,000 in May 2021. King County as a whole mirrored this trend, with the median price of single-family homes reaching $998,888 in May, up from $995,000 in April and up 14.8% from last May’s median price of $869,975. May closings reveal that the Eastside and Snohomish County didn’t follow this same pattern, instead experiencing a much-needed cooling of prices. On the Eastside, the median sold price for single-family homes fell from $1,722,500 in April to $1,590,000 in May. While last month’s median price is the lowest since January of this year, it was still up 22% year-over-year. The Eastside saw an increase in the percentage of homes that had a price change before selling, hitting 10% in May — double that of April. This is likely a signal that Eastside sellers will need to adjust their lofty price expectations. While a majority of listings in the area — about 66% — still sold over list price last month, a full month of inventory and a 403% increase in active inventory on the Eastside from February to May means that buyers have more choice and agency than they’ve had in some time. Homes are still selling, but multiple offers are far fewer and sellers are […]

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Local Market Update – May 2022

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LOCAL MARKET UPDATE·2 min read After a long stint of suppressed housing inventory across our region, buyers may at last have more options as the supply of available homes ticks up ahead of the summer market. The month-over-month increase in inventory has been as much as 50% in some areas, offering renewed opportunities for those buyers who are not dissuaded by high home prices and rising mortgage rates. The Eastside appears to have experienced the most dramatic inventory growth, with .79 months of available single-family homes last month compared to .46 in March. Seattle increased slightly to .59 months of inventory, while Snohomish also had a notable increase up to .67 months of inventory compared to .46 in March. The increase in supply is likely occurring because rising home prices and mortgage rates have put a slight damper on sales in the area. Last month, the median sold price for a single-family home in Seattle surpassed $1 million for the first time—landing at a historic $1,019,950. This is up 16.6% year-over-year from $875,000 in April 2021. The median price for single-family homes on the Eastside last month was an eye-watering $1,722,500, with 80% of homes selling over list price. Although inventory has increased in the area, Eastside homes are still selling quickly, with 96% of listings selling in under two weeks. King County as a whole also saw prices increase, with the median sold price for single-family homes reaching $995,000, up from $830,000 a year ago. Snohomish County home prices have kept pace with the market, with the median sold price for a single-family home reaching $839,298. That’s an increase of 24.3% year-over-year from $675,000 in April 2021. This is likely due to increased demand from buyers who can’t compete in the intense Seattle and Eastside market, seeking more bang for their buck in the relatively more affordable Snohomish County market. Affordability issues have also trickled into the condominium market, as some prospective homebuyers divert from the single-family market to condos. Eastside condo prices have increased 29.7% year-over-year to $674,444 last month from $520,000 in April 2021. In Snohomish County, the median sold price for condos rose to $550,000 year-over-year from $432,250 last year. That’s an increase of 27.2%. Despite rising home prices and heftier mortgage rates, many buyers are still eager to take advantage of the financial benefits of homeownership. According to Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, “Owning real […]

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Local Market Update – April 2022

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LOCAL MARKET UPDATE·2 min read The spring market continues its frenzied pace, with soaring prices and stiff competition testing the resolve of buyers. Despite these obstacles and rising mortgage rates, inventory remains low across King County, as pending sales keep pace with new listings, demonstrating a strong demand from buyers. This demand has factored into the way sellers are approaching the market. Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner notes that median listing prices continue to rise, saying “this suggests that sellers remain quite bullish when it comes to pricing their homes.” This was certainly true in March on the Eastside, where the median closed sale price for single-family homes was $1,700,000, an all-time high. This was up 26% year-over-year, and slightly up from February, when the median was $1,697,500. In Seattle, the median price for single-family homes achieved an all-time high of $970,000, up 18% year-over-year. Snohomish County continues to feel the impact of this voracious demand, with a median closed sale price of $1,298,000 for single-family homes — that’s an increase of 38.1% year-over-year. Not only are asking prices increasing across the region, but many homes are selling for well over list price. On the Eastside, a staggering 85% of closed sales in March 2022 sold for more than the list price. Overall, that’s down from an all-time record last month of 87%, but tied for the second-highest month ever with April 2021. Of the Eastside homes that sold over asking last month, the median difference was 21% over asking, and they spent an average of just 4 days on the market. Seattle is experiencing a similar pattern, with 71% of the closed sales in March going over the list price. This is a high for Seattle; in March and April of 2018, 63% and 68% of listings closed over asking, respectively. Last month, the Seattle listings that sold over list price sold for a median of 15% over the list price, and were on the market for 5 days. In Snohomish County, homes that sold over list price went for a median of 21% over the asking price. With these conditions, many buyers are looking to condos as a more affordable way to break into the market. Consequently, condo prices have also seen a year-over-year increase. In King County, condos remain relatively more affordable, with a median price of $540,000 in March 2022. That’s up from $470,000 in March […]

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Local Market Update – March 2022

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LOCAL MARKET UPDATE·3 min read As we head into the traditionally busy spring season for homebuying, the market seems to be keeping up its intense pace, with low inventory across the board and multiple offers the norm. A marginal increase in listings across King and Snohomish counties has done little to counter fierce buyer demand, with certain areas on the Eastside virtually unable to sustain new inventory. With these trends likely to continue, buyers will need to be aggressive and ready to compete. Prices continue to rise across Seattle and the Eastside, with the median sold price for single-family homes on the Eastside increasing to an eye-watering $1,697,500 in February — a 34% year-over-year increase. Seattle saw a 16% year-over-year increase last month, with a median sold price of $925,000 for single-family homes. These median home prices for the Eastside and Seattle were all-time record highs. Fierce competition on the Eastside last month drove price increases, with 87% of  homes in the area closing above list price and the median sold price coming in at a whopping 23% over list. At the start of this month the Eastside had just under two weeks of inventory, and 94% of last month’s listings sold in under two weeks. The pace of home sales in Seattle was almost as hot, with 86% of homes selling in two weeks or less.  Snohomish County saw a year-over-year price increase of 19% in February, with a median sold price of $745,725 for single-family homes, a record-high for the area as well. The continuation of remote and flexible work options continues to encourage buyers to purchase in the area, and by month’s end Snohomish County inventory had dropped to less than two weeks’ supply. The competition and rising prices have some buyers torn between jumping into the market while they still can, or waiting to see if a price correction will occur within the foreseeable future. The last correction occurred in 2018; in the three years from May 2015 to May 2018 King County home prices rose 51% from $480,942 to $726,275. During the same time, interest rates increased from 3.84% to 4.59%. Prices then dropped 16% from $726,275 to $610,000 and took 18 months to rise above $726,275 again. While this context is helpful, it’s also extremely difficult to predict when and if a price correction will occur in the near future. Amid rising concerns over […]

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Local Market Update – February 2022

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LOCAL MARKET UPDATE·2 min read If the home sales we’ve seen in the last few weeks are any indication, the market looks like it’s heating up again. Inventory inched up in January, but remains far short of buyer demand. Homes are selling fast, and for well over asking price. Expect this spring, traditionally the busiest season of the year for home sales, to be hotter than ever. Concerns about future mortgage interest hikes appear to have added fuel to an already overheated market, further depleting already meager inventory. The number of homes for sale was lower than any January on record, according to Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s chief economist. There were 59% fewer homes on the market in King County than the same time last year. Snohomish County’s inventory was down 35%. Based on current demand, it would take less than two weeks to sell all the properties on the market in both counties. Buyers competing for scant inventory snapped up available homes quickly. In King County, 72%  of the homes sold in January were on the market less than two weeks. On the Eastside, 81% of homes sold in less than two weeks, as did 61% of homes in Seattle, and 76% of homes in Snohomish County. Homes prices continued to trend upward compared to the same time last year. In January, the median price of a single-family home in King County rose 7% year-over-year to $775,000. Home prices on the Eastside jumped 32% over a year ago to $1,515,000, virtually unchanged from the all-time high of $1,529,500 set in December. With 71% of homes on the Eastside selling for over asking price, the market is expected to stay very competitive. Prices in Seattle have been fairly level for the past few months. The January median home price of $790,000 is flat compared to a year ago. In Snohomish County, the $715,000 median home price was up 19% over the prior year. While January’s statistics (which reflect sales that closed in December) hinted that the market may be easing off, the housing activity we’re seeing today indicates that buyers are stepping on the gas. Expect even more competition for homes in the coming months. Despite the pandemic and remote work, large companies continue to hire new workers and invest in large office projects  in the area. Matthew Gardner weighed in on how he sees that affecting the housing market. “One of the biggest questions for 2022 is how the […]

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