The local economy is booming, and nationally we are experiencing the second-longest bull market in history. That’s great news, but it can’t last forever. The economy runs in cycles and we’re long overdue for our overheated market to cool down a bit. According to a survey of top economists by Zillow, almost half of experts said they expect the next recession to begin some time in 2020. Experts Say Recession Could Hit by Early 2020 A Recession Means a Slow-Down, Not a Crisis A recession means the economy has slowed down. It does not mean we are experiencing another housing crisis. The housing crash of 2008 caused the last recession. However, that crash was primarily due to faulty lending practices that encouraged people to purchase homes they could not afford. Current lending practices make that unlikely to occur today. Housing Won’t Be the Problem According to economists, monetary and trade policy are the most likely triggers for the next recession, not housing. “If a recession is to occur, it is unlikely to be caused by housing-related activity, and therefore the housing sector should be one of the leading sources to come out of the recession.” – Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American The last recession that was caused by the housing crash was an anomaly. During the previous five recessions home values actually appreciated. If the US experiences a recession you can expect a slow-down of home price increases, not a housing crisis.
The local real estate market looks like it might finally be showing signs of softening, with inventory up and sales down. More sellers have opted to put their homes on the market. Inventory was up 47 percent in King County and price increases were in the single digits. Despite the increase in inventory and slowdown in sales, it’s still a solid seller’s market. Over half the properties purchased in June sold for more than list price. Eastside >>>Click image to view full report. A booming economy offered little price relief for buyers looking on the Eastside. In a recent study of economic strength by state, Washington ranked number one in the country. An additional report targeting cities ranks the Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma market as the nation’s fourth strongest economy. The median price of a single-family home on the Eastside rose 10 percent over a year ago to $977,759 setting another record. There is some good news for buyers. Inventory rose to its highest level in three years, with the number of homes for sale increasing 46 percent from the same time last year. King County >>>Click image to view full report. The number of homes on the market in King County soared 47 percent from a year ago, the biggest increase since the housing bubble burst. Despite the increase, there is just over one month of available inventory, far short of the four to six months that is considered a balanced market. The median price of a single-family home increased 9 percent over last June to $715,000. That’s down 2 percent from the $726,275 median in May. Home prices haven’t dropped from May to June in King County since the last recession. Seattle >>>Click image to view full report. Seattle trails only Bay Area cities when it comes to greatest profits for home sellers. That may help explain the surge in inventory in June. For example, the number of homes for sale in the popular Ballard/Green Lake area doubled from a year ago. Even though buyers are finally getting more choices, demand still exceeds supply. Homes sell faster in Seattle than in any other U.S. real estate market. That demand propelled the median price of a single-family home to $812,500; up 8 percent over last June and down from the record $830,000 set in May. Snohomish County >>>Click image to view full report. The largest jump in home prices in the region came in Snohomish County. While higher-priced […]
Why have property taxes gone up so much in Washington State this year and what can we expect them to do in 2019? Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner answers the question that many homeowners are asking. This post originally appeared on the Windermere.com Blog.
NEW NEWS: Inventory is finally up. New listings and total home inventory took a big leap recently. In King County, more people put their homes on the market in May than any May in the past 10 years. And the total number of homes for sale increased by 40 percent from a year ago. Why the big leap? Home prices have risen so sharply that sellers are finally jumping into the market. That’s good news for buyers, who have more choices than they’ve had in years. OLD NEWS: There still aren’t enough homes to meet demand. While King County now has about a month of available inventory, four to six months of inventory is considered a balanced market. Despite the increase in listings, it’s still a seller’s market. Whether you’re thinking about buying or selling, it’s important to have the most current information about the market. Contact one of our amazing brokers for recent statistics about the market today and to answer any questions you may have.
Last month brought some long-awaited, positive news for buyers with May posting the most new listings in over a decade. Despite the uptick in inventory, most homes are selling in less than a month. Prices haven’t been impacted either, with the majority of the region continuing to experience double-digit home price increases. Eastside >>>Click image to view full report. The median home price on the Eastside hit an all-time high of $960, 000 in May; a 10 percent gain over the same time last year. While there were a third more homes for sale in May than a year ago, the area still had only about a month of available inventory. Three to six months is considered a balanced market. Redmond, a city with a population of 64,000, currently has only 51 single-family homes on the market. King County >>>Click image to view full report. First the good news: Those looking to buy a home in King County in May had almost 1,000 more homes to choose from compared to the previous month. The bad news: That boost in inventory did little to moderate home prices. The median price for a single-family home jumped 15 percent to $726,275, up slightly from the record high set in April. Seattle >>>Click image to view full report. A strong economy and desirable lifestyle have kept Seattle a leading destination for job-seekers. The ever-increasing demand for housing has sapped supply and sent prices soaring. For 19 months Seattle has led the nation in rising home prices. May saw the city set yet another record, with the median home price jumping 14 percent to $830,000. Snohomish County >>>Click image to view full report. Soaring prices in King County combined with rising interest rates make Snohomish County an affordable alternative for those willing to extend their commute time. The typical home cost $500,000 in May, an increase of 11 percent over the previous year, and down very slightly from last month.
The calendar may claim summer begins on June 21st, but for most of us, it’s already fully in gear. Kids are getting out of school, families are making summer vacation plans, and backyard barbecues are on everyone’s minds. This is also a great time of the year to get your house in order and ready for the summer season. The following are a handful of ideas and tips to help you with this process. Outdoor Spaces Gardening– It’s not too late to start your garden! If you’re thinking of getting your green thumb engaged, just make sure you use starts because many summer harvest vegetables won’t start from seed this late in the season. Outdoor living– My home has an outdoor space that, like many, suffers in the grey of winter and the rainy spring. To get it properly in the summer spirit I need to get it prepped for hosting. This includes finding outdoor lighting options, updating the seating and cleaning up the barbeque. BBQ- Make sure your grill is ready to go this season by making sure everything is clean and in working order before you fire it up. In the northwest that includes making sure the fuel lines are spider-web-free. Also, make sure you have propane or charcoal on hand for impromptu dinners. Clean Windows- Now is a great time to clean your windows, inside and out. Sun shows more dirt and smudges. Lawn care- Prepare your lawn for the months ahead. Depending on where you live this means different things. Check your sprinkler system to make sure it wasn’t damaged over the winter; upgrade your lawn care to ensure fuller greens, check for and remove moss to prevent dead patches and start your weeding regimen. Pool prep- If you have an outdoor pool get this ready for a summer season of fun in the sun, (unless you are lucky enough to enjoy your pool year-round). Same goes for hot-tubs. Make sure your equipment has been serviced, chemicals are available and your pool is clean and ready to use. OR, head to the local hardware store and buy your kiddie pool now before they run out! Summerize- Check or replace AC filters, window screens, and household fans to make sure these are all functioning and will help provide maximum circulation in your house. Consider installing an attic fan or vent to help pull heat out of your home all winter long. Pack away excess cold weather […]
The Eastside Market Review is now available for the first quarter of 2018. Read the full report online by clicking the image below.
Another month, another record. Despite a slight uptick in inventory that showed the highest level of active listings since last August, both King and Snohomish counties saw home prices in April hit all-time highs. There is less than one month of inventory available in both counties, far below the four to six months of supply that is considered “balanced.” As long as the severe shortage of homes remains, improving supply is unlikely to reverse rising prices. Eastside >>>Click image to view full report. With the median price on the Eastside hovering at just under $1 million, you’d expect a softening of the market. Instead, sales were strong at every price point. The median price of $943,000 was a slight dip from the record of $950,000, but up 7 percent from last April. That does show some price moderation. According to Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner, mortgage rates are expected to increase modestly in the coming months, which he predicts should further moderate price growth. King County >>>Click image to view full report. After setting a record in March, the median price of a single-family home in King County hit a new high of $725,000 in April. Prices soared 16 percent over a year ago, an increase of $100,000. The rising cost of both rental and home prices is taking its toll. According to a new study, 68 percent of King County residents rate the quality of life here as high but 35 percent said the cost of living is the worst problem in the county. Seattle >>>Click image to view full report. The median cost of a single-family home in Seattle was $819,000, unchanged from March but up 13 percent from a year ago. There doesn’t appear to be any price relief in the near future. The booming job market in Seattle continues to fuel housing demand that far exceeds supply. As a result, home prices are predicted to rise at above-average rates in the coming year. Snohomish County >>>Click image to view full report. In Snohomish County, the median price of a single-family home exceeded half a million dollars, setting a new record for the region. The typical home cost of $505,975 in April was up 15 percent over the same time last year. Despite record-setting prices, the area continues to draw buyers seeking to find more affordable housing options. Of the 100,000+ people who leave King County each year, the majority […]
The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. Economic Overview The Washington State economy added 96,900 new jobs over the past 12 months, representing an annual growth rate of 2.9%—still solidly above the national rate of 1.5%. Most of the employment gains were in the private sector, which rose by 3.4%. The public sector saw a more modest increase of 1.6%. The strongest growth was in the Education & Health Services and Retail sectors, which added 17,300 and 16,700 jobs, respectively. The Construction sector added 10,900 new positions over the past 12 months. Even with solid increases in jobs, the state unemployment rate held steady at 4.7%—a figure that has not moved since September of last year. I expect the Washington State economy to continue adding jobs in 2018, but not at the same rate as last year given that we are nearing full employment. That said, we will still outperform the nation as a whole when it comes to job creation. Home Sales Activity There were 14,961 home sales during the first quarter of 2018. This is a drop of 5.4% over the same period in 2017. Clallam County saw sales rise the fastest relative to the first quarter of 2017, with an increase of 16.5%. In most of the other markets, the lack of available homes for sale slowed the number of closings during this period. Listing inventory in the quarter was down by 17.6% when compared to the first quarter of 2017, but pending home sales rose by 2.6% over the same period, suggesting that closings in the second quarter should be fairly robust. The takeaway from this data is that the lack of supply continues to put a damper on sales. I also believe that the rise in interest rates in the final quarter of 2017 likely pulled sales forward, leading to a drop in sales in the first quarter of 2018. Home Prices With ongoing limited inventory, it’s not surprising that the growth in home prices continues to trend well above the long-term average. Year-over-year, average prices rose 14.4% to $468,312. Economic vitality in the region is leading to robust housing demand that far exceeds supply. Given the relative lack of new construction homes— something that is unlikely […]
Despite the typical seasonal surge in new listings, supply in our area continued to fall far short of demand in March. With just two weeks of available inventory in every market, competition for homes is intense. The result was another month of double-digit price increases as compared to a year ago. The region has now led the country in home price increases for 17 months in a row. The prediction for the spring market: HOT with no signs of cooling. Eastside >>>Click image to view full report. The median price of a single-family home was up 6 percent over last March to $926,000, down slightly from the record-setting price last month. Sales were brisk at every price, including the luxury market. Sales of homes priced at $2 million or more were up 23 percent in the first quarter of 2018 as compared to the previous year. King County >>>Click image to view full report. A booming economy combined with insufficient inventory propelled prices to an all-time high in March. The median price of a single-family home in King County jumped 15 percent to $689,950. Multiple offers remain the norm. Buyers here need to plan on moving very quickly and working with their agent on strategies to navigate bidding wars. Seattle >>>Click image to view full report. The median home price in Seattle set a new record of $819,500 in March, up a whopping 17 percent from a year ago. Homes are selling within days of being listed. Only 19 single-family homes are currently on the market in Ballard and just 24 in Queen Anne. South Seattle, traditionally the most affordable part of the city, has seen the greatest increase in prices. Home values in these neighborhoods have nearly tripled since the recession ended, while home values in the rest of the city have doubled. Snohomish County >>>Click image to view full report. Once a less competitive market than King County, Snohomish County now has the lower amount of inventory of the two. The median price of a single-family home grew 12 percent over a year ago to $475,000. Prices here remain significantly lower than in King County and many buyers priced out of that market are trading a longer commute time for the opportunity of ownership.